Athletic Club vs Ceara
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-02 · 22:00 CET
LLDDL
WWLDLThe score model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Athletic Club win — 46.5% vs 40.0% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.43 – 1.04 Ceara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 46.5% | 40.0% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 29.3% | -3.6% |
| Ceara win | 27.9% | 30.7% | -2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 42.0% | +2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 23.2% | +0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 48.6% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 30.1% | -2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletic Club 45 / Ceara 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Athletic Club vs Ceara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.