Vila Nova FC vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-27 · 01:30 CET
DWDLD
LLDWLThe score model made a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.74 – 1.03 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 54.0% | 54.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 26.4% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Londrina win | 22.4% | 18.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 46.0% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 25.7% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 48.2% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 31.3% | +11.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 55.8 / Londrina 30.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vila Nova FC vs Londrina in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.