Operario-PR vs Ceara
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-26 · 21:30 CET
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WWLDLThe score model made an Operario-PR win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Operario-PR 1.52 – 0.99 Ceara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR win | 49.4% | 43.8% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 29.2% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Ceara win | 24.8% | 27.0% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 44.4% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 24.8% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 49.7% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | 30.2% | +5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Operario-PR 50.6 / Ceara 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Operario-PR vs Ceara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.