Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-27 · 00:30 CET
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WLDLWThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.45 – 0.84 Sao Bernardo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 51.6% | 62.6% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 23.1% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Sao Bernardo win | 21.7% | 14.3% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 52.7% | -12.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 31.9% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | 50.0% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 36.1% | -9.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 55.8 / Sao Bernardo 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.