Nautico vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-26 · 21:30 CET
LLDLW
WDLWDThe score model made a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.26 – 1.28 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 36.3% | 41.2% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 29.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Sport Recife win | 37.0% | 29.5% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 46.6% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 26.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 52.8% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.1% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nautico 24.9 / Sport Recife 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nautico vs Sport Recife in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.