Cuiaba vs Nautico
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-22 · 02:30 CET
WDLLL
DLLDLThe score model made a Cuiaba win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.43 – 0.82 Nautico.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba win | 51.6% | 44.6% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 29.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Nautico win | 21.6% | 25.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.0% | 41.0% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.0% | 21.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 47.7% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 28.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cuiaba 42 / Nautico 25.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cuiaba vs Nautico in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.