Criciuma vs Operario-PR
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-23 · 00:30 CET
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LLLLWThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.35 – 0.80 Operario-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 49.7% | 47.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 29.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Operario-PR win | 22.3% | 22.5% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.3% | 40.8% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.0% | 21.7% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.7% | 46.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 28.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 45.8 / Operario-PR 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Criciuma vs Operario-PR in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.