Vila Nova FC vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-20 · 00:30 CET
WDWDL
LLLLWThe score model made a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.66 – 0.82 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 57.5% | 64.4% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 23.3% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| America MG win | 18.3% | 12.3% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 44.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 24.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 41.6% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 31.3% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 55.6 / America MG 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vila Nova FC vs America MG in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.