Sport Recife vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-19 · 21:30 CET
WWDLW
WWWDDThe score model made a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 27%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 0.96 – 0.83 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 37.1% | 36.9% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.7% | 30.8% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Juventude win | 30.1% | 32.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.8% | 40.0% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.8% | 21.0% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.8% | 47.2% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.8% | 28.6% | -8.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 37.6 / Juventude 28.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sport Recife vs Juventude in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.