Ceara vs Novorizontino
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-20 · 01:30 CET
DWWLD
WWWDWThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.07 – 1.24 Novorizontino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 31.9% | 33.8% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 29.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Novorizontino win | 40.1% | 36.5% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 43.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 24.1% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 50.4% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 30.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 37.7 / Novorizontino 55.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ceara vs Novorizontino in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.