Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-07-29 · 22:30
The score model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.98 – 1.27 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta win | 28.8% | 23.3% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 29.6% | -1.6% |
| Athletic Club win | 43.2% | 47.1% | -4.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 40.6% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 21.6% | -2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 46.2% | -1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 28.6% | +3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ponte Preta 32.6 / Athletic Club 37.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.