Juventude vs Avai
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-07-29 · 22:30
The score model makes a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventude 1.34 – 0.72 Avai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 51.6% | 58.9% | -7.3% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.0% | +2.1% |
| Avai win | 20.3% | 15.1% | +5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 41.0% | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 21.7% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 37.6% | 41.1% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 28.5% | -2.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventude 22.6 / Avai 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.