Genk W vs Leuven W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-12 · 13:30 CET
DWWLL
DDWWWThe score model makes a Leuven W win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 55.8% vs 46.7% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Genk W 0.90 – 2.64 Leuven W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk W win | 9.7% | 7.9% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 16.6% | 15.8% | +0.8% |
| Leuven W win | 73.8% | 76.3% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 63.3% | +5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.2% | 43.5% | +3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 46.7% | +9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.4% | 43.9% | +6.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Genk W 28.4 / Leuven W 28.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.