Serie C - Group B title race 2026/27: who will win the league?

Italy · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026

Most likely to win the league: Spezia (89%), Ravenna (6%), Grosseto (3%). 81 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.

Points line — 50% of simulations

75 pts

enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons

Points line — 90% of simulations

81 pts

enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten

Champions chances, club by club

Club	P	Pts	Proj. pts	Champions	Needs (90% line)
Spezia	8	22	8577–93	89%	59 from 30 (1.97/game)
Ravenna	8	17	7062–79	6%	64 from 30 (2.13/game)
Grosseto	8	15	6859–77	3%	66 from 30 (2.20/game)
Reggiana	8	14	6758–76	2%	67 from 30 (2.23/game)

Below 1%: Pescara, Campobasso, Perugia, Torres, Livorno, Guidonia, Ostiamare, Atalanta U23, Pianese, Forli, Gubbio, Vado, Vis Pesaro, Pineto, Latina, Sambenedettese.

What does each club need?

Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.

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How these chances are made

A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 302 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.

The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).