Merkantil Bank Liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Hungary · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 4 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Kecskemeti TE (41%), Soroksar (32%), Mezokovesd-Zsory (10%). 59 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kecskemeti TE | 8 | 17 | 5547–63 | 41% | 42 from 22 (1.91/game) |
| Soroksar | 8 | 20 | 5445–61 | 32% | 39 from 22 (1.77/game) |
| Mezokovesd-Zsory | 7 | 12 | 4941–57 | 10% | 47 from 23 (2.04/game) |
| Kazincbarcika | 8 | 13 | 4840–56 | 7% | 46 from 22 (2.09/game) |
| Tiszakecske | 8 | 16 | 4740–55 | 6% | 43 from 22 (1.95/game) |
| Videoton | 8 | 9 | 4234–50 | 1% | 50 from 22 (2.27/game) |
| Gyirmot | 8 | 13 | 4234–50 | 1% | 46 from 22 (2.09/game) |
Below 1%: Ajka, Szentlorinc, Karcagi, Szeged, BVSC-Zuglo, DVTK, Nagykanizsa, Kozarmisleny SE, Csakvari.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 179 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).