Professional Development League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 19 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Bolton U21 (82%), Sheffield Utd U21 (13%), Cardiff U21 (2%). 54 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton U21 | 7 | 18 | 5649–62 | 82% | 36 from 17 (2.12/game) |
| Sheffield Utd U21 | 7 | 13 | 4842–54 | 13% | 41 from 17 (2.41/game) |
| Cardiff U21 | 6 | 9 | 4235–49 | 2% | 45 from 18 (2.50/game) |
| Huddersfield U21 | 5 | 9 | 4134–48 | 2% | 45 from 19 (2.37/game) |
Below 1%: Coventry U21, Bristol City U21, Swansea U21, Fleetwood U21, Charlton U21, Wigan U21, Barnsley U21, Hull U21, QPR U21, Sheffield Wed U21, Colchester U21, Peterborough U21, Millwall U21.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 148 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).