Professional Development League predicted table 2026/27
England · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 19 October 2026
- Bolton U21 are the most likely Professional Development League champions, finishing first in 82% of 10,000 simulations (projected 56 points; Sheffield Utd U21 next on 13%).
- Millwall U21 (86%), Peterborough U21 (61%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Fleetwood U21 sit 2nd today but are projected to finish 8th — the model expects them to drop below their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton U21 | 7 | 18 | 5649–62 | 82% | >99% | 0% | 1st (82%) |
| 2 | Sheffield Utd U21 | 7 | 13 | 4842–54 | 13% | 91% | 0% | 2nd (49%) |
| 3 | Cardiff U21 | 6 | 9 | 4235–49 | 2% | 59% | <1% | 3rd (24%) |
| 4 | Huddersfield U21 | 5 | 9 | 4134–48 | 2% | 46% | <1% | 4th (19%) |
| 5 | Coventry U21 | 6 | 10 | 4033–47 | <1% | 38% | <1% | 4th (17%) |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 12 | 3932–46 | <1% | 31% | <1% | 5th (16%) |
| 7 | Swansea U21 | 7 | 12 | 3730–44 | <1% | 19% | <1% | 6th (15%) |
| 8 | Fleetwood U21 | 7 | 15 | 3326–40 | <1% | 5% | 3% | 9th (14%) |
| 9 | Charlton U21 | 7 | 9 | 3326–40 | <1% | 6% | 4% | 9th (13%) |
| 10 | Wigan U21 | 8 | 10 | 3125–38 | <1% | 2% | 6% | 10th (13%) |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 6 | 7 | 2922–36 | 0% | 1% | 14% | 12th (12%) |
| 12 | Hull U21 | 6 | 5 | 2720–34 | 0% | <1% | 24% | 13th (13%) |
| 13 | QPR U21 | 9 | 8 | 2620–33 | 0% | <1% | 30% | 14th (15%) |
| 14 | Sheffield Wed U21 | 7 | 6 | 2619–33 | 0% | <1% | 30% | 14th (14%) |
| 15 | Colchester U21 | 7 | 6 | 2518–32 | 0% | <1% | 40% | 15th (16%) |
| 16 | Peterborough U21 | 6 | 7 | 2316–29 | 0% | <1% | 61% | 16th (25%) |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 1711–24 | 0% | 0% | 86% | 17th (58%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 148 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
