CFL - Group A title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Czech Republic · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Ceske Budejovice (49%), Kraluv Dvur (29%), Domazlice (16%). 35 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceske Budejovice | 11 | 25 | 3329–37 | 49% | 10 from 4 (2.50/game) |
| Kraluv Dvur | 10 | 25 | 3228–36 | 29% | 10 from 5 (2.00/game) |
| Domazlice | 10 | 21 | 3127–34 | 16% | 14 from 5 (2.80/game) |
| Sparta Prague B | 10 | 17 | 2723–31 | 3% | 18 from 6 (3.00/game) |
| Plzen B | 9 | 17 | 2824–32 | 2% | 18 from 6 (3.00/game) |
Below 1%: Motorlet Prague, Loko Praha, Slavia Prague U20, Admira Prague, Pisek, Pribram B, Bohemians 1905 B, Dukla Prague B, Aritma Prague, Benesov, Povltavska FA.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 39 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).