CFL - Group A title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Czech Republic · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Domazlice (41%), Ceske Budejovice (37%), Kraluv Dvur (8%). 35 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domazlice | 9 | 20 | 3228–36 | 41% | 15 from 6 (2.50/game) |
| Ceske Budejovice | 9 | 19 | 3228–35 | 37% | 16 from 6 (2.67/game) |
| Kraluv Dvur | 8 | 19 | 2924–33 | 8% | 16 from 7 (2.29/game) |
| Sparta Prague B | 8 | 13 | 2723–32 | 5% | 22 from 8 (2.75/game) |
| Plzen B | 8 | 16 | 2824–32 | 5% | 19 from 7 (2.71/game) |
| Motorlet Prague | 10 | 20 | 2824–31 | 4% | 15 from 6 (2.50/game) |
Below 1%: Slavia Prague U20, Loko Praha, Pisek, Bohemians 1905 B, Pribram B, Admira Prague, Dukla Prague B, Benesov, Aritma Prague, Povltavska FA.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 50 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).