Insights · 2025-26 season review
How often do favourites actually win?
Across 26,127 matches in 88 leagues last season, the pre-match favourite won 50.5% of the time — which means roughly every second favourite didn't. And the league you're watching matters enormously: favourites converted 67.2% in Premiere Ligue Women but only 39% in Primavera 1. Blindly backing every favourite made money in just 21 of 88 leagues — the bookmaker margin ate the rest.
74.5%
win rate, heavy favourites (odds < 1.50)
54.3%
win rate, clear favourites (1.50–2.00)
41.3%
win rate, slight favourites (> 2.00)
League by league
Every league with 100+ priced matches in 2025-26. ROI = returns from staking 1 unit on the favourite in every match. Click headers to sort.
| League | Country | Matches | Fav wins ↓ | Blind-back ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premiere Ligue Women | France | 134 | 67.2% | +6.6% |
| Meistriliiga | Estonia | 180 | 66.7% | +2.4% |
| Eliteserien | Norway | 240 | 62.1% | +9.4% |
| Allsvenskan Women | Sweden | 182 | 62.1% | -3.8% |
| Saudi Professional League | Saudi Arabia | 314 | 60.8% | -1.6% |
| Super League Women | Belgium | 108 | 60.2% | -8.7% |
| Super League 2 | Greece | 250 | 60% | -2.7% |
| Challenge League | Switzerland | 186 | 58.6% | +9.9% |
| Prva liga | Slovenia | 164 | 57.9% | +1.8% |
| Super League | China | 240 | 57.5% | -1.9% |
| Premier League | Azerbaijan | 200 | 57.5% | -3.6% |
| Liga Portugal | Portugal | 308 | 57.5% | -1% |
| 3. CFL - Group B | Czech Republic | 260 | 57.3% | +0.4% |
| Veikkausliiga | Finland | 132 | 56.8% | -0.1% |
| Division 1 | Saudi Arabia | 307 | 56.7% | -0.1% |
| Bundesliga | Germany | 307 | 56.4% | +2.8% |
| TOPLYGA | Lithuania | 180 | 55.6% | -0.2% |
| 3. CFL - Group A | Czech Republic | 265 | 55.1% | -4% |
| Super Lig | Turkey | 306 | 54.6% | +0.3% |
| LaLiga | Spain | 380 | 54.5% | +3.7% |
The favourites who wouldn't convert
Teams the market kept installing as favourites — and who kept not winning. West Brom are the headline case: favourites in 31 of 46 Championship matches, converting just 11, on their way to 21st.
| Team | League | Times favourite | Won | Converted ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louviere | Jupiler Pro League | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
| Peterborough Sports | National League North | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
| Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
| Chateauroux | National | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Bastia | Ligue 2 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| Paysandu PA | Serie B | 16 | 2 | 12.5% |
| WS Wanderers | A-League | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
| Eastbourne Boro | National League South | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
The season's biggest upsets
| Match | League | Score | Winner's odds | Favourite (odds) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adana Demirspor v Manisa FK | 1. Lig | 2-1 | 24.83 | Manisa FK (1.06) |
| Karditsa v Chrisoupolis | Super League 2 | 1-2 | 21.17 | Karditsa (1.12) |
| Crvena zvezda v OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet | Mozzart Bet Super Liga | 1-2 | 20.28 | Crvena zvezda (1.09) |
| Crvena zvezda v Novi Pazar | Mozzart Bet Super Liga | 1-2 | 17.84 | Crvena zvezda (1.12) |
| PSV v Telstar | Eredivisie | 0-2 | 17.53 | PSV (1.11) |
| Bayern Munich v Augsburg | Bundesliga | 1-2 | 17.17 | Bayern Munich (1.11) |
| Sparta Prague v FK Pardubice | Chance Liga | 2-4 | 15.57 | Sparta Prague (1.17) |
| UD Logrones v Alfaro | Segunda RFEF - Group 2 | 0-1 | 15.55 | UD Logrones (1.15) |
| Hacken W v Norrkoping W | Allsvenskan Women | 1-3 | 15.18 | Hacken W (1.14) |
| Qarabag v Kapaz | Premier League | 0-2 | 14.25 | Qarabag (1.2) |
Method. Favourite = the shorter-priced side of the 1X2 market (home vs away) at our recorded pre-match odds; draws are never the favourite. A match counts only when all three 1X2 prices exist. Leagues with fewer than 100 priced matches are excluded. ROI is flat-stake (1 unit per match) at the recorded prices, margin included — which is why an above-50% win rate can still lose money. Companion piece: Results vs the market 2025-26 →
Reuse this data: free with a link to football-charts.com. Questions or a league you want broken out: contact.