Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-30 · 20:30 CET
LWDWL
WDLWWThe score model made a Fenerbahce win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.37 – 1.96 Fenerbahce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 25.7% | 17.6% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 22.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Fenerbahce win | 50.1% | 59.6% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 56.3% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.5% | 35.0% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 54.3% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 38.0% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Samsunspor 41.6 / Fenerbahce 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.