Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-30 · 20:30 CET
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LWDWDThe score model made a Basaksehir win the most likely outcome at 59%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Basaksehir 1.99 – 1.03 Kasimpasa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basaksehir win | 58.6% | 57.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Kasimpasa win | 17.8% | 18.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 54.5% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 33.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 53.7% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 37.0% | +5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Basaksehir 44.5 / Kasimpasa 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.