Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
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LLLWWThe score model made a Konyaspor win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 29%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Konyaspor 1.10 – 0.77 Kocaelispor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor win | 41.6% | 47.6% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.5% | 28.9% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Kocaelispor win | 23.8% | 23.5% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.7% | 41.5% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.0% | 22.3% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.3% | 47.2% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.8% | 28.5% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Konyaspor 44.3 / Kocaelispor 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.