Gaziantep vs Rizespor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-29 · 20:30 CET
LLDWL
LDWLWThe score model made a Gaziantep win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gaziantep 1.49 – 1.36 Rizespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 39.2% | 32.0% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Rizespor win | 33.1% | 41.3% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 53.2% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 32.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 57.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 36.0% | -4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gaziantep 44.4 / Rizespor 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.