Galatasaray vs Goztepe
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-29 · 20:30 CET
WLDWW
WLDLLThe score model made a Galatasaray win the most likely outcome at 69%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.26 – 0.83 Goztepe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 68.8% | 73.0% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.0% | 17.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Goztepe win | 11.2% | 9.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 60.7% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 40.1% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 48.9% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 42.7% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Galatasaray 44.4 / Goztepe 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.