Rayong FC vs Prachuap
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-05 · 14:30 CET
LDWLD
LWWWLThe score model made a Rayong FC win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rayong FC 1.60 – 1.38 Prachuap.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayong FC win | 41.1% | 30.8% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Prachuap win | 31.4% | 40.7% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 49.3% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 29.5% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 54.1% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 34.8% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rayong FC 28.1 / Prachuap 34.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.