Murcia vs Teruel
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 18:15 CET
LWWWW
LDLDLThe score model made a Murcia win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 20%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Murcia 1.02 – 0.52 Teruel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 46.5% | 55.3% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 35.4% | 28.0% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Teruel win | 18.1% | 16.7% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20.2% | 38.8% | -18.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7.1% | 19.7% | -12.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 26.5% | 40.3% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 26.8% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Murcia 46.7 / Teruel 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.