Hercules vs Atl. Madrid B
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 18:15 CET
WWDLL
WLWDWThe score model made a Hercules win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hercules 1.35 – 1.26 Atl. Madrid B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 38.5% | 44.9% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Atl. Madrid B win | 34.2% | 26.8% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 44.9% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% | 24.6% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 50.1% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 31.2% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hercules 37.6 / Atl. Madrid B 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.