Alcorcon vs CE Europa
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 18:15 CET
LWDDD
DLWLDThe score model made an Alcorcon win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alcorcon 1.75 – 1.16 CE Europa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 50.6% | 59.6% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 24.4% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| CE Europa win | 24.9% | 16.0% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 48.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 28.4% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 47.2% | +10.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alcorcon 37.6 / CE Europa 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.