Villarreal B vs Algeciras
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
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DWLLLThe score model made a Villarreal B win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villarreal B 1.63 – 0.75 Algeciras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal B win | 57.8% | 47.3% | +10.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 28.5% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Algeciras win | 16.7% | 24.2% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 46.0% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 26.3% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 50.1% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 31.5% | +1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Villarreal B 37.8 / Algeciras 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.