Atl. Madrid B vs Torremolinos
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-08-30 · 19:15 CET
LWLWD
WWLLDThe score model made an Atl. Madrid B win the most likely outcome at 59%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atl. Madrid B 1.94 – 0.98 Torremolinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Madrid B win | 59.3% | 48.6% | +10.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 27.4% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Torremolinos win | 18.2% | 24.0% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 49.1% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 29.5% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 52.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 34.0% | +2.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atl. Madrid B 43.3 / Torremolinos 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.