Antequera vs UD Ibiza
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-08-30 · 19:15 CET
LWWWW
WLWLLThe score model made an Antequera win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Antequera 1.26 – 1.14 UD Ibiza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antequera win | 38.6% | 30.1% | +8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 30.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| UD Ibiza win | 32.7% | 39.1% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 37.8% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 20.2% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 44.7% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 26.4% | +7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Antequera 43.4 / UD Ibiza 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.