Hercules vs Murcia
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 21:30 CET
LWWDL
DLWWWThe score model made a Hercules win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hercules 1.16 – 0.97 Murcia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 39.5% | 33.5% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 31.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Murcia win | 29.9% | 35.1% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.9% | 39.1% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 20.8% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 46.2% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 26.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hercules 37.2 / Murcia 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.