Algeciras vs FC Cartagena SAD
Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 19:15 CET
DWLLL
DWLDWThe score model made an Algeciras win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Algeciras 1.13 – 0.83 FC Cartagena SAD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeciras win | 42.0% | 39.7% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 31.3% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| FC Cartagena SAD win | 26.1% | 29.1% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.1% | 37.7% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.5% | 20.5% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.6% | 44.2% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 26.2% | +5.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Algeciras 43.4 / FC Cartagena SAD 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.