Unionistas vs Lugo
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-08-30 · 19:15 CET
LWDWL
WLWDWThe score model made a Unionistas win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Unionistas 1.39 – 0.82 Lugo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unionistas win | 49.7% | 43.9% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 29.7% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Lugo win | 21.4% | 26.4% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 40.4% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 22.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 45.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.9% | 27.4% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Unionistas 46.9 / Lugo 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.