Zamora vs Ath Bilbao B
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 19:15 CET
WWLLD
DLWLDThe score model made a Zamora win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zamora 1.50 – 0.83 Ath Bilbao B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamora win | 52.4% | 49.8% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.4% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Ath Bilbao B win | 20.1% | 21.8% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 42.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 23.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 45.9% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.0% | 29.3% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zamora 37.7 / Ath Bilbao B 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.