Real Aviles vs Pontevedra
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-08-28 · 19:00 CET
DLLDL
DWLDWThe score model made a Pontevedra win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Aviles 1.26 – 1.51 Pontevedra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Aviles win | 31.0% | 36.4% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 30.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Pontevedra win | 42.3% | 33.5% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 41.1% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 22.7% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 48.0% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 28.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Aviles 25.5 / Pontevedra 28.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.