St. Mirren vs Motherwell
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
WWWDW
WWDDWThe score model made a Motherwell win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 3:3 (HT 3:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Mirren 0.98 – 1.20 Motherwell.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mirren win | 29.4% | 36.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 28.8% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Motherwell win | 40.6% | 34.8% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 49.1% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 28.4% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 55.1% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 33.4% | -12.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Mirren 45.4 / Motherwell 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.