Dundee FC vs Hibernian
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
LWWLD
WLLWWThe score model made a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee FC 1.26 – 1.55 Hibernian.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee FC win | 30.7% | 31.3% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 28.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Hibernian win | 43.6% | 40.7% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 50.9% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 30.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 56.5% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 35.0% | +2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee FC 42.4 / Hibernian 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.