Aberdeen vs Rangers
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-30 · 13:00 CET
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WDLWWThe score model made a Rangers win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.08 – 1.86 Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 21.5% | 24.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Rangers win | 55.2% | 50.6% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 58.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 36.9% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 59.5% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 39.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aberdeen 43.8 / Rangers 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.