Spartans vs Elgin City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DWWLL
WLLLWThe score model made a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spartans 1.67 – 1.12 Elgin City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartans win | 49.3% | 45.9% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.2% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Elgin City win | 24.8% | 26.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 51.7% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 31.3% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 55.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 35.4% | -6.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spartans 45.2 / Elgin City 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.