Spartans vs Elgin City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LDWDL
DLWDWThe score model makes a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.5% vs 63.5% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spartans 1.67 – 1.12 Elgin City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spartans win | 49.3% | 51.0% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.4% | +0.5% |
| Elgin City win | 24.8% | 23.5% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 53.7% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 33.7% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 55.1% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 36.5% | -8.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spartans 45.4 / Elgin City 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.