Al Khaleej vs Al Hilal
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
LDDDL
WWWWWThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 1:5 (HT 1:5) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Khaleej 0.91 – 2.65 Al Hilal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Khaleej win | 10.0% | 9.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 16.0% | 15.2% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Al Hilal win | 73.9% | 75.5% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | 65.4% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.4% | 44.4% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 50.3% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.5% | 44.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Khaleej 45.4 / Al Hilal 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.