Al Bukiryah vs Al Adalah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-31 · 18:05 CET
LLDDL
WWDLWThe score model made an Al Bukiryah win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Bukiryah 1.49 – 1.16 Al Adalah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Bukiryah win | 43.9% | 42.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Al Adalah win | 29.1% | 29.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 47.7% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 28.0% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 53.3% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 33.3% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Bukiryah 41 / Al Adalah 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.