Alverca vs Braga
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-05 · 19:00 CET
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DDDDWThe score model made a Braga win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alverca 1.01 – 1.77 Braga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 22.1% | 19.1% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 27.1% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Braga win | 55.6% | 53.8% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 42.8% | +9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 23.4% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 45.6% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 30.0% | +7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alverca 25.5 / Braga 23.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.