Benfica vs Estoril
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-31 · 21:15 CET
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LDLLLThe score model made a Benfica win the most likely outcome at 82%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benfica 3.08 – 0.85 Estoril.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 81.5% | 85.0% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.2% | 9.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Estoril win | 7.3% | 5.0% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.1% | 73.6% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55.2% | 54.6% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 46.9% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 59.7% | 52.5% | +7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Benfica 23.8 / Estoril 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.