Famalicao vs Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-30 · 21:30 CET
WDLLD
LLWWDThe score model made a Famalicao win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Famalicao 1.11 – 0.85 Gil Vicente.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 42.1% | 46.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 29.7% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Gil Vicente win | 28.2% | 24.0% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.4% | 42.1% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.7% | 22.9% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 48.0% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 29.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Famalicao 24.8 / Gil Vicente 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.