Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-17 · 19:00 CET
LDDLL
LLWLLThe score model made an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.36 – 0.84 Puszcza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 48.1% | 50.1% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 26.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Puszcza win | 22.2% | 23.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% | 51.2% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.9% | 30.8% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 53.8% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 35.3% | +2.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 21.8 / Puszcza 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.