Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-17 · 19:00 CET
DWWWL
WLLLWThe score model makes a Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 62.3% vs 47.5% implied (+14.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.36 – 0.83 Puszcza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 48.3% | 53.8% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 25.3% | +4.4% |
| Puszcza win | 22.0% | 20.9% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 52.5% | -14.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 32.2% | -14.2% |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 53.6% | -10.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 36.1% | +1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 21.9 / Puszcza 27.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.