Kozakken Boys vs GVVV
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
DLLDW
DLLLLThe score model made a Kozakken Boys win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kozakken Boys 1.78 – 1.53 GVVV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kozakken Boys win | 44.1% | 40.0% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| GVVV win | 33.5% | 35.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | 63.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.1% | 43.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 65.0% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 43.6% | -7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kozakken Boys 31.8 / GVVV 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.