Jong Sparta Rotterdam vs Hardenberg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
DWWWL
DWWWWThe score model made a Jong Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Sparta Rotterdam 1.90 – 1.82 Hardenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Sparta Rotterdam win | 40.8% | 36.5% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 23.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Hardenberg win | 38.0% | 40.1% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | 69.0% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.0% | 50.0% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 71.1% | 69.9% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.2% | 48.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Sparta Rotterdam 44.4 / Hardenberg 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.