Jong Almere City vs HFC
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
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LWLLWThe score model made a Jong Almere City win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Almere City 1.94 – 1.10 HFC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Almere City win | 57.2% | 55.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.6% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HFC win | 21.3% | 21.5% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 61.4% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% | 41.2% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 60.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 42.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Almere City 40.1 / HFC 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.