IJsselmeervogels vs RKAV Volendam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
WLWLD
WLLWDThe score model made an IJsselmeervogels win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IJsselmeervogels 1.91 – 1.52 RKAV Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IJsselmeervogels win | 47.0% | 48.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 24.2% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| RKAV Volendam win | 31.2% | 27.0% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 62.8% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.9% | 42.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | 63.7% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 43.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: IJsselmeervogels 30.5 / RKAV Volendam 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.